Monday, June 6, 2011

It has become very unlikely that this is the year

Thanks to back to bak sweeps, the Cubs are now 11 games out. It is certainly possible for the Cubs to win, but it is equivalent to saying at the beginning of the season, we have to win the division by 11 games. I think the Cubs are a good team, but so many people have missed a large percentage of the first two months, that they have piled up too many losses before getting their players back. It wouldn't hurt to ride it out the rest of June or so to see if the Cubs go on a big win streak.

But if not, what names should go on the trading block?

Here are some criteria for being a good trade candidate
Final year of a deal
not having a no trade clause or be willing to waive it
being at a position some one could use
being productive

Players with long term deals that are unmovable:
Soriano is in a long term deal and is owed a bit more money than he's worth.

Players with no trade clauses (ntc):
Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster - have full no trade clauses and would probably use them. You never know for sure though, someone might want to play for a contender like Derrek Lee last year.

Aramis Ramirez - I'm not sure if he has a ntc. I'm sure there will be contenders in need of a third baseman, and he'd probably waive it. However the Cubs might want to excercise the option to keep him next year.

Players with trade value the Cubs might want to keep:
Marlon Byrd - He's got another year left, but has a very low price tag.

Sean Marshall and Carlos Marmol - Any team would love them for sure and would probably pay big.

Kerry Wood - signed cheap to play in Chicago. It would be low to trade him. He'd be a valuable piece though.

Blake DeWitt - cheap enough to hang on to, and value isn't that high. Is a good platoon partner at 2B with Barney.

Matt Garza - Cubs paid a lot for him but will have to keep paying to keep him. I think he's the Cub's best starter at this point and they might want to hang onto him.

Maximally tradeable people:
Jeff Baker - backup infielder who can mash lefties. Someone would take him and the Cubs don't really need him anymore now that they have Barney.

Reed Johnson - isn't going to make mouths water, but he fits the mould of Francoer who got dealt last year, a good defender who can handle lefties.

Kusuke Fukudome - off to another great start. Many teams could use a good defender and disciplined hitter.

Bullpen, especially John Grabow - Bullpen guys often move at the trading deadline, and almost all teams want another lefty especially.

Carlos Pena - signed a one year deal. I'm sure someone could use him at 1B/DH.

Any names left off have essentially no chance of being traded.

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