Thursday, June 30, 2011

Sacrifices are often dumb

It was particularly dumb in this game in the 10th inning with someone who could steal second.

So far this year Campana is 8/9 in steals, 88% succesful. What is the probability of success of a sacrifice? 85%? 90%? What are the odds of at least one out with a sac? 95%? Take your pick

88% chance of runner on second no outs OR
90% chance of runner on second with 1 out.

I can do this math very easily by figuring 3 remaining outs is 50% more than 2 remaining outs, and that's really all that matters as the runner on second base is about the same likelihood with either scenerio.

Lets just play the game of what would happen if everything else was the same.
Campana safe at second, no outs
Koyie Hill does whatever, Campana probably gets to third
Reed Johnson infield single run scores.

After Campana steals he could consider stealing again, or maybe sacrifice at that point.

I'm afraid Mike Quade is unimaginative. Runner on base, I should call for a scarifice.

For the most part, only a pitcher should sacrifice a runner to second. Koyie Hill could be the exception to that, as he is a real terrible hitter. In this case, where a runner can steal just as successfully as bunting, it's a no-brainer not to sac.

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